Recently, the weather in Balikpapan has often seemed unpredictable, leaving many people puzzled. But is Balikpapan’s weather really becoming harder to forecast? Agus Rifani, S.Si., M.Si., a Physics lecturer at the Institut Teknologi Kalimantan and an alumnus of the National Central University in Taiwan, offers a deeper insight into this phenomenon in the following interview.

Is the Weather in Balikpapan Difficult to Predict?

According to him, the main issue isn't the difficulty of weather predictions, but rather the public’s infrequent monitoring of weather forecasts. "The forecasts provided by BMKG (the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency) usually cover broad areas, such as a province or city," he explains. Often, however, we are more affected by local weather conditions that may differ from the general forecast.

For instance, even if the weather forecast for Balikpapan predicts clear skies, local rain might still occur in specific areas where people live or work. Therefore, he emphasizes the importance of checking whether the weather forecast applies to a broad area or a more localized one.

Why Does the Weather Seem More Unpredictable?

He also points out that weather forecasts represent probabilities rather than certainties. "For example, if a weather forecast indicates a 27% chance of rain at 3:00 PM WITA (Central Indonesia Time) in Balikpapan, many might assume it won’t rain due to the low probability. However, there remains a 27% chance of rain," he adds. Additionally, changing rainfall patterns in Balikpapan may affect public perception of weather uncertainty.

On a broader scale, global climate change due to global warming also contributes to weather unpredictability. He explains that climate change can lead to more frequent extreme weather events, such as intense rainfall in a short period or very high temperatures.

Impact of Weather Uncertainty in Balikpapan

When asked about who is most affected by weather uncertainty in Balikpapan, he acknowledges not having specific data on this matter. However, based on observations from various news sources, the impact of unpredictable weather is notably felt by construction projects in the new Capital City (IKN). On a national level, farmers and ordinary citizens are also frequently impacted by flood disasters triggered by weather conditions and other factors such as land-use changes due to mining activities.

How to Handle Weather Uncertainty?

He offers practical advice for better handling weather uncertainty in Balikpapan. "Always monitor the weather forecasts provided by BMKG, especially daily and hourly updates," he suggests. Additionally, with technological advancements, most smartphones now have access to weather apps or widgets that provide more specific weather information, even down to smaller areas like North Balikpapan.

He also recommends using weather radar available in various apps such as Accuweather to get a more accurate picture of upcoming weather conditions.

The uncertainty of weather in Balikpapan doesn’t mean the weather is genuinely difficult to predict. Much depends on our understanding of weather forecasts and how regularly we check them. By paying attention to more specific forecasts and understanding the probabilities involved, we can be better prepared for unpredictable weather. Additionally, global climate change necessitates increased vigilance regarding the increasing frequency of extreme weather events.