Investment in the mining sector has attracted increasing attention alongside the rapid development of Indonesia’s new capital city, the Nusantara Capital City (IKN), in East Kalimantan. However, amid these opportunities, investors are often confronted with major challenges in the form of market fluctuations and emotional decision-making. Through her research, Isti Kamila, M.Si. emphasizes that the greatest enemy in investing is not merely market movements, but investors’ own fear and greed.

The Dynamics of Mining Stock Investment in East Kalimantan

The rise in mining investment in East Kalimantan as a supporting region for IKN has boosted investor interest in energy sector stocks. Nevertheless, high stock price volatility poses a significant risk of financial losses. According to Isti Kamila, M.Si., this condition requires investors to rely not only on intuition but also on data-driven analytical approaches when making investment decisions.

Fundamental Analysis and Price Forecasting Approaches

In her study, Isti Kamila, M.Si. applied the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to evaluate stock performance and the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method to forecast stock price movements. The DCF evaluation results indicate that ABMM and BUMI are classified as undervalued, providing buy signals, while BYAN is considered overvalued, indicating a sell signal.

Trend Differences and Their Implications for Investors

From the price forecasting perspective using DES with a high level of accuracy (MAPE < 10%), differences in stock movement trends were identified. BUMI and BYAN exhibit upward trends, while ABMM shows a downward trend. This finding highlights the unique characteristics of ABMM, which is fundamentally considered undervalued but demonstrates short-term price weakening.

Isti Kamila, M.Si. explains that these conditions have different implications for various types of investors. For long-term investors, undervalued stocks such as ABMM may present an opportunity to accumulate shares at discounted prices with the expectation that prices will return to their intrinsic value. In contrast, for traders who rely on momentum, a downward trend serves as a risk signal that should be avoided.

Managing Investment through Data-Driven Approaches

Through her research findings, Isti Kamila, M.Si. underscores the importance of using reliable analytical methods to navigate stock market dynamics, particularly in the mining sector, which is directly affected by the development of IKN. The utilization of historical data and forecasting models is considered capable of helping investors make more rational and measurable decisions.

In facing the significant opportunities within the mining sector, investors are encouraged to move away from intuition-based decisions and adopt analytical approaches instead. By doing so, risks can be better managed, and long-term investment objectives can be achieved more optimally.